St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-12-06 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 68.8%

STL: 31.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.58

STL: 2.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	OTT	STL
Season SV%	0.881	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	20	18	2	90.0%	2.82	4	0.82
STL	Joel Hofer	42	41	1	97.6%	4.24	3	3.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	OTT 1 - 2 STL	STL	OTT
2025-11-28	STL 4 - 3 OTT	STL	OTT
2025-01-03	STL 4 - 0 OTT	STL	STL
2024-10-29	OTT 8 - 1 STL	OTT	OTT
2024-03-21	OTT 2 - 5 STL	STL	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	1	1.26
1	STL	2	0	0.12
2	OTT	13	0	0.94
2	STL	16	1	1.35
3	OTT	27	2	2.04
3	STL	13	3	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown