New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-06 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 2 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 69.4%

NYI: 30.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.65

NYI: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	TBL	NYI
Season SV%	0.894	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.83	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	19	17	2	89.5%	2.62	4	0.62
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	32	32	0	100.0%	3.61	2	3.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	TBL
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	0.89
1	NYI	8	0	0.26
2	TBL	17	1	1.41
2	NYI	10	1	0.79
3	TBL	17	1	1.32
3	NYI	14	3	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown