New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-06 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 2 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 56.8%

NYI: 43.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.73

NYI: 2.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	0.89
1	NYI	8	0	0.26
2	TBL	17	1	1.41
2	NYI	10	1	0.79
3	TBL	17	1	1.32
3	NYI	14	3	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.7 - 2.3