Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-12-06 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 2 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 37.4%

MIN: 62.6%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.97

MIN: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	VAN	MIN
Season SV%	0.000	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	30	28	2	93.3%	2.97	2	0.97
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	21	17	4	81.0%	2.24	1	-1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VAN at home vs MIN: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	MIN 5 - 2 VAN	MIN	MIN
2025-12-06	VAN 4 - 2 MIN	VAN	MIN
2025-11-01	MIN 5 - 2 VAN	MIN	MIN
2025-04-12	VAN 2 - 3 MIN	MIN	VAN
2025-03-07	VAN 3 - 1 MIN	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	0	0.47
1	MIN	12	0	0.91
2	VAN	11	0	0.60
2	MIN	15	0	0.67
3	VAN	13	1	1.17
3	MIN	20	2	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown