Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-12-07 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 53.0%

COL: 47.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.05

COL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	PHI	COL
Season SV%	0.868	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	28	25	3	89.3%	2.39	1	-0.61
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	23	2	92.0%	2.54	3	0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs COL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	COL 3 - 7 PHI	PHI	COL
2025-12-07	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	PHI
2025-02-02	COL 2 - 0 PHI	COL	COL
2024-11-18	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2024-01-20	PHI 4 - 7 COL	COL	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	7	0	0.29
1	COL	18	1	1.05
2	PHI	13	1	0.63
2	COL	19	0	0.70
3	PHI	19	2	1.63
3	COL	8	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown