San Jose Sharks at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-12-07 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (81% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 80.6%

SJS: 19.4%

Expected Goals

CAR: 4.48

SJS: 1.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	CAR	SJS
Season SV%	0.899	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	23	19	4	82.6%	3.20	3	-0.80
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	29	28	1	96.6%	3.57	2	2.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CAR at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-07	CAR 1 - 4 SJS	SJS	CAR
2025-10-14	SJS 1 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-03-20	SJS 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-12-10	CAR 3 - 2 SJS	CAR	CAR
2023-10-27	CAR 3 - 0 SJS	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	18	0	1.12
1	SJS	8	0	0.62
2	CAR	9	0	0.41
2	SJS	14	2	1.40
3	CAR	30	2	2.04
3	SJS	9	1	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 80.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown