Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-07 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 45.8%

PIT: 54.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.27

PIT: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Stat	DAL	PIT
Season SV%	0.907	0.892
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	3.12

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	32	30	2	93.8%	3.27	1	1.27
PIT	Tristan Jarry	25	22	3	88.0%	4.02	5	1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • DAL at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	PIT
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	PIT
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	1	1.07
1	PIT	12	1	1.10
2	DAL	7	0	0.48
2	PIT	18	0	0.84
3	DAL	12	0	0.81
3	PIT	13	0	0.60
4	DAL	5	3	0.80
4	PIT	5	0	0.40
5	DAL	3	1	0.85
5	PIT	3	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8