Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-07 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

Win Probability

DAL: 50.7%

PIT: 49.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.16

PIT: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	1	1.07
1	PIT	12	1	1.10
2	DAL	7	0	0.48
2	PIT	18	0	0.84
3	DAL	12	0	0.81
3	PIT	13	0	0.60
4	DAL	5	3	0.80
4	PIT	5	0	0.40
5	DAL	3	1	0.85
5	PIT	3	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1