St. Louis Blues at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-07 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 52.7%

STL: 47.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.22

STL: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	MTL	STL
Season SV%	0.889	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	18	14	4	77.8%	2.64	4	-1.36
STL	Jordan Binnington	26	23	3	88.5%	3.13	4	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	STL 2 - 0 MTL	STL	MTL
2025-12-07	MTL 3 - 4 STL	STL	MTL
2025-03-25	STL 6 - 1 MTL	STL	STL
2024-10-26	MTL 5 - 2 STL	MTL	MTL
2024-02-11	MTL 2 - 7 STL	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	3	1.36
1	STL	5	0	0.31
2	MTL	12	0	0.95
2	STL	10	2	0.99
3	MTL	13	1	0.81
3	STL	13	2	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown