St. Louis Blues at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-07 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 53.6%

STL: 46.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.17

STL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • MTL at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	STL 2 - 0 MTL	STL	MTL
2025-12-07	MTL 3 - 4 STL	STL	MTL
2025-03-25	STL 6 - 1 MTL	STL	STL
2024-10-26	MTL 5 - 2 STL	MTL	STL
2024-02-11	MTL 2 - 7 STL	STL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	3	1.36
1	STL	5	0	0.31
2	MTL	12	0	0.95
2	STL	10	2	0.99
3	MTL	13	1	0.81
3	STL	13	2	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0