Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

TOR: 58.8%

TBL: 41.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.23

TBL: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.82
1	TBL	17	0	0.88
2	TOR	15	0	0.57
2	TBL	12	0	0.38
3	TOR	10	2	1.71
3	TBL	12	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7