Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 52.2%

TBL: 47.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.10

TBL: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	MTL	TBL
Season SV%	0.889	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	27	21	6	77.8%	3.27	3	-2.73
TBL	Jonas Johansson	27	26	1	96.3%	3.52	3	2.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	0.94
1	TBL	20	1	1.14
2	MTL	22	2	2.40
2	TBL	7	1	0.77
3	MTL	6	0	0.18
3	TBL	13	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown