Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-12-09 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 57.0%
TBL: 43.0%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.22
TBL: 3.72
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 57%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | MTL | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.786 | — |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs TBL: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | TBL 5 - 4 MTL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-09 | MTL 1 - 6 TBL | TBL | MTL |
| 2025-02-09 | MTL 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | MTL |
| 2025-01-21 | MTL 3 - 2 TBL | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-12-29 | TBL 2 - 5 MTL | MTL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:12 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 06:03 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 02:27 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:06 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 02:43 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:41 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:22 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.2 - 3.7