Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-12-09 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 54.8%
TBL: 45.2%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.68
TBL: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 4.5
Over 5.5: 37%
Over 6.5: 24%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | MTL | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.928 | 0.905 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | TBL 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | TBL |
| 2026-05-01 | MTL 0 - 1 TBL | TBL | MTL |
| 2026-04-29 | TBL 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | TBL |
| 2026-04-26 | MTL 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | MTL |
| 2026-04-24 | MTL 3 - 2 TBL | MTL | MTL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 1 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.7 - 2.9
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