San Jose Sharks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 68.8%

SJS: 31.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.49

SJS: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	PHI	SJS
Season SV%	0.910	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	18	17	1	94.4%	2.01	2	1.01
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	30	26	4	86.7%	3.48	2	-0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs SJS: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	SJS
2025-12-09	PHI 4 - 1 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-12-31	SJS 0 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI
2024-11-11	PHI 4 - 3 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-03-12	PHI 3 - 2 SJS	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	22	1	1.69
1	SJS	7	1	0.79
2	PHI	15	0	1.19
2	SJS	9	1	0.66
3	PHI	5	1	0.60
3	SJS	10	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown