Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 57.9%

BOS: 42.1%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.85

BOS: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	STL	BOS
Season SV%	0.901	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	31	26	5	83.9%	4.59	5	-0.41
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	26	24	2	92.3%	2.43	1	0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 0% • STL at home vs BOS: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	STL 2 - 5 BOS	BOS	STL
2025-12-04	BOS 5 - 2 STL	BOS	STL
2024-11-16	BOS 2 - 3 STL	STL	BOS
2024-11-12	STL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	STL
2024-03-11	BOS 1 - 5 STL	STL	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	12	0	1.07
1	BOS	15	0	0.64
2	STL	7	0	0.35
2	BOS	24	0	1.55
3	STL	17	1	1.00
3	BOS	14	5	2.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown