Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 49.8%

DAL: 50.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.12

DAL: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	WPG	DAL
Season SV%	0.880	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.49	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Eric Comrie	19	15	4	78.9%	2.08	0	-1.92
DAL	Casey DeSmith	33	30	3	90.9%	3.63	3	0.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • WPG at home vs DAL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	15	1	0.87
1	DAL	11	0	0.87
2	WPG	19	1	1.56
2	DAL	12	0	0.73
3	WPG	12	1	1.20
3	DAL	9	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown