Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 4 - 3 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 42.1%

COL: 57.9%

Expected Goals

NSH: 2.74

COL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	NSH	COL
Season SV%	0.897	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.93	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	43	40	3	93.0%	4.06	1	1.06
COL	Scott Wedgewood	32	28	4	87.5%	4.60	4	0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NSH at home vs COL: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	COL 3 - 7 NSH	NSH	COL
2025-12-13	COL 4 - 2 NSH	COL	COL
2025-12-09	NSH 4 - 3 COL	NSH	COL
2025-11-22	NSH 0 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-22	NSH 2 - 1 COL	NSH	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	15	0	1.04
1	COL	14	1	1.09
2	NSH	8	0	0.30
2	COL	22	0	1.31
3	NSH	14	2	1.70
3	COL	18	0	0.91
4	NSH	5	1	0.59
4	COL	4	0	0.50
5	NSH	3	1	0.97
5	COL	3	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Nashville Predators 4 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.7 - 3.3