Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-12-10 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 55.8%
DET: 44.2%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.12
DET: 3.20
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
| Stat | CGY | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.919 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • CGY at home vs DET: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-10 | CGY 3 - 4 DET | DET | CGY |
| 2025-02-01 | CGY 1 - 3 DET | DET | CGY |
| 2024-11-27 | DET 2 - 1 CGY | DET | DET |
| 2024-02-17 | CGY 0 - 5 DET | DET | CGY |
| 2023-10-22 | DET 6 - 2 CGY | DET | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:02 | DET | Goal |
| 1 | 04:33 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 07:41 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 09:09 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 08:02 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 09:07 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 14:40 | DET | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.1 - 3.2