Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-12-10 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 52.7%

DET: 47.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.28

DET: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	CGY	DET
Season SV%	0.914	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	29	25	4	86.2%	3.05	2	-0.95
DET	John Gibson	37	34	3	91.9%	2.74	0	-0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs DET: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DET 5 - 2 CGY	DET	DET
2025-12-10	CGY 3 - 4 DET	DET	CGY
2025-02-01	CGY 1 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2024-11-27	DET 2 - 1 CGY	DET	DET
2024-02-17	CGY 0 - 5 DET	DET	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.96
1	DET	10	0	0.60
2	CGY	26	0	1.09
2	DET	8	0	0.71
3	CGY	15	0	0.70
3	DET	18	2	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown