Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-12-10 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 55.9%

DET: 44.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.06

DET: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • CGY at home vs DET: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DET 5 - 2 CGY	DET	DET
2025-12-10	CGY 3 - 4 DET	DET	CGY
2025-02-01	CGY 1 - 3 DET	DET	CGY
2024-11-27	DET 2 - 1 CGY	DET	DET
2024-02-17	CGY 0 - 5 DET	DET	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.96
1	DET	10	0	0.60
2	CGY	26	0	1.09
2	DET	8	0	0.71
3	CGY	15	0	0.70
3	DET	18	2	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9