Florida Panthers at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-12-10 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 56.2%

FLA: 43.8%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.35

FLA: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	UTA	FLA
Season SV%	0.895	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	36	32	4	88.9%	4.16	4	0.16
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	30	27	3	90.0%	2.92	2	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs FLA: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	FLA 3 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-12-10	UTA 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	UTA
2025-03-28	FLA 2 - 1 UTA	FLA	FLA
2025-01-08	UTA 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	20	0	1.14
1	FLA	15	1	0.80
2	UTA	16	2	1.58
2	FLA	15	1	1.17
3	UTA	7	0	0.21
3	FLA	35	2	2.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown