San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 62.4%

SJS: 37.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.22

SJS: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	TOR	SJS
Season SV%	0.912	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.90	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	32	29	3	90.6%	3.67	4	0.67
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	30	28	2	93.3%	2.57	1	0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	0.67
1	SJS	15	1	1.25
2	TOR	21	0	1.20
2	SJS	10	1	0.73
3	TOR	8	1	0.69
3	SJS	14	1	1.01
4	TOR	0	0	0.00
4	SJS	3	1	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.2 - 2.5