San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-12-11 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 68.1%
SJS: 31.9%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.61
SJS: 2.70
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
| Stat | TOR | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.896 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.874 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.74 | 3.36 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs SJS: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | TOR 2 - 3 SJS | SJS | TOR |
| 2025-03-27 | SJS 6 - 5 TOR | SJS | SJS |
| 2025-03-03 | TOR 2 - 3 SJS | SJS | TOR |
| 2024-01-09 | TOR 7 - 1 SJS | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-01-06 | SJS 1 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:33 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 15:31 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 14:32 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:35 | TOR | Goal |
| 4 | 02:49 | SJS | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 68.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks
Expected: 3.6 - 2.7