Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

NJD: 42.7%

TBL: 57.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.00

TBL: 4.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	20	0	0.96
1	TBL	17	1	1.69
2	NJD	8	1	0.60
2	TBL	16	1	1.09
3	NJD	21	1	1.77
3	TBL	8	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 7.4

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 4 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 4.4