Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 43.8%

TBL: 56.2%

Expected Goals

NJD: 2.98

TBL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	NJD	TBL
Season SV%	0.884	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	35	27	8	77.1%	3.37	2	-4.63
TBL	Jonas Johansson	37	33	4	89.2%	3.33	2	-0.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	TBL
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	20	0	0.96
1	TBL	17	1	1.69
2	NJD	8	1	0.60
2	TBL	16	1	1.09
3	NJD	21	1	1.77
3	TBL	8	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown