Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-12-11 • Xfinity Mobile Arena
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 58.2%
VGK: 41.8%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.09
VGK: 2.99
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | PHI | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.864 | 0.895 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs VGK: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | VGK 1 - 2 PHI | PHI | VGK |
| 2025-12-11 | PHI 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | PHI |
| 2025-01-02 | VGK 5 - 2 PHI | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-11-25 | PHI 4 - 5 VGK | VGK | PHI |
| 2023-11-18 | PHI 4 - 3 VGK | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:11 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 06:07 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 16:08 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 12:53 | VGK | Goal |
| 4 | 02:47 | VGK | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.1 - 3.0