Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 47.3%

VGK: 52.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.13

VGK: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	PHI	VGK
Season SV%	0.910	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	22	19	3	86.4%	2.79	3	-0.21
VGK	Akira Schmid	19	17	2	89.5%	2.14	0	0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • PHI at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.85
1	VGK	9	0	0.74
2	PHI	9	0	0.64
2	VGK	15	3	1.43
3	PHI	9	0	0.65
3	VGK	9	0	0.36
4	PHI	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	2	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2