Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 62.5%

MTL: 37.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.56

MTL: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	PIT	MTL
Season SV%	0.892	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.12	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	25	4	86.2%	2.66	0	-1.34
MTL	Jacob Fowler	38	36	2	94.7%	3.83	1	1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	PIT
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.58
1	MTL	15	0	0.93
2	PIT	24	0	1.50
2	MTL	15	0	0.93
3	PIT	20	1	1.75
3	MTL	10	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown