Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-12-11 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 62.1%
MTL: 37.9%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.19
MTL: 3.04
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | PIT | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.850 | 0.903 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs MTL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | PIT 4 - 3 MTL | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-12-20 | MTL 4 - 0 PIT | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-12-11 | PIT 2 - 4 MTL | MTL | PIT |
| 2024-12-12 | MTL 2 - 9 PIT | PIT | MTL |
| 2024-11-02 | PIT 3 - 1 MTL | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:54 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:37 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:18 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:44 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:59 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:07 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0