Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 42.1%

CAR: 57.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.93

CAR: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	WSH	CAR
Season SV%	0.913	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	40	37	3	92.5%	4.84	2	1.84
CAR	Brandon Bussi	28	26	2	92.9%	3.25	2	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs CAR: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR
2025-05-15	WSH 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-05-12	CAR 5 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	1	0.89
1	CAR	17	0	0.83
2	WSH	8	0	0.43
2	CAR	29	1	1.96
3	WSH	15	0	1.12
3	CAR	15	0	1.07
4	WSH	3	1	0.59
4	CAR	0	0	0.00
5	WSH	3	0	0.21
5	CAR	2	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3