Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 6 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 41.9%

OTT: 58.1%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.15

OTT: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	CBJ	OTT
Season SV%	0.877	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.04	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	29	23	6	79.3%	2.84	2	-3.16
OTT	Linus Ullmark	27	24	3	88.9%	1.85	0	-1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • CBJ at home vs OTT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	CBJ 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-29	OTT 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	OTT
2025-12-11	CBJ 3 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-08	CBJ 5 - 2 OTT	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-06	OTT 4 - 0 CBJ	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	12	0	0.32
1	OTT	12	0	0.88
2	CBJ	13	0	1.01
2	OTT	13	1	0.93
3	CBJ	11	0	0.52
3	OTT	11	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown