St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 7 - 2 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 46.5%

STL: 53.5%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.11

STL: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	NSH	STL
Season SV%	0.897	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.93	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	26	24	2	92.3%	2.07	0	0.07
STL	Jordan Binnington	32	25	7	78.1%	4.14	3	-2.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NSH at home vs STL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	NSH 6 - 5 STL	NSH	NSH
2025-12-27	STL 3 - 2 NSH	STL	STL
2025-12-15	STL 2 - 5 NSH	NSH	STL
2025-12-11	NSH 7 - 2 STL	NSH	STL
2025-03-27	NSH 2 - 3 STL	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	20	1	1.79
1	STL	13	0	0.95
2	NSH	15	1	1.44
2	STL	10	0	0.80
3	NSH	9	1	0.90
3	STL	9	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown