Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 6 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 56.7%

BOS: 43.3%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.24

BOS: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Stat	WPG	BOS
Season SV%	0.880	0.882
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.49	3.60

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Eric Comrie	24	18	6	75.0%	3.50	2	-2.50
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	29	26	3	89.7%	2.92	4	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs BOS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	BOS 6 - 1 WPG	BOS	WPG
2025-12-11	WPG 3 - 6 BOS	BOS	WPG
2025-01-30	BOS 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-10	WPG 8 - 1 BOS	WPG	WPG
2024-01-22	BOS 4 - 1 WPG	BOS	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	2	1.32
1	BOS	11	0	0.79
2	WPG	15	2	1.11
2	BOS	11	0	0.77
3	WPG	10	0	0.49
3	BOS	13	2	1.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown