Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 2 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 78.0%

FLA: 22.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.68

FLA: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	COL	FLA
Season SV%	0.924	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	23	2	92.0%	1.63	1	-0.37
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	42	36	6	85.7%	4.57	4	-1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs FLA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	FLA 2 - 1 COL	FLA	COL
2025-12-11	COL 6 - 2 FLA	COL	COL
2025-01-06	COL 3 - 1 FLA	COL	COL
2024-11-23	FLA 4 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2024-02-10	FLA 4 - 0 COL	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	25	2	1.71
1	FLA	16	0	0.70
2	COL	21	0	1.59
2	FLA	9	0	0.39
3	COL	11	2	1.27
3	FLA	9	1	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown