Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 68.7%

DET: 31.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.41

DET: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	EDM	DET
Season SV%	0.896	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.81	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	28	27	1	96.4%	3.64	1	2.64
DET	Cam Talbot	29	25	4	86.2%	3.94	4	-0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs DET: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	EDM 4 - 1 DET	EDM	EDM
2025-10-19	DET 4 - 2 EDM	DET	EDM
2025-01-30	EDM 2 - 3 DET	DET	EDM
2024-10-27	DET 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-02-13	EDM 8 - 4 DET	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.76
1	DET	18	0	1.13
2	EDM	18	2	1.21
2	DET	15	1	1.74
3	EDM	13	2	1.97
3	DET	17	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown