Buffalo Sabres at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 49.7%

BUF: 50.3%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.30

BUF: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	VAN	BUF
Season SV%	0.905	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.72	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	15	12	3	80.0%	1.54	0	-1.46
BUF	Alex Lyon	32	30	2	93.8%	3.42	3	1.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs BUF: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	BUF 5 - 3 VAN	BUF	BUF
2025-12-11	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-01-21	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	VAN
2024-11-29	BUF 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	BUF
2024-03-19	VAN 3 - 2 BUF	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	23	0	0.73
1	BUF	11	0	0.56
2	VAN	13	1	0.93
2	BUF	13	0	0.85
3	VAN	20	2	1.76
3	BUF	4	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown