Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 48.3%

OTT: 51.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.15

OTT: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Stat	MIN	OTT
Season SV%	0.928	0.872
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	3.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	36	34	2	94.4%	3.90	3	1.90
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	25	22	3	88.0%	2.84	2	-0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • MIN at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	OTT 1 - 4 MIN	MIN	OTT
2025-12-13	MIN 3 - 2 OTT	MIN	OTT
2025-02-01	OTT 6 - 0 MIN	OTT	OTT
2024-12-29	MIN 1 - 3 OTT	OTT	MIN
2024-04-02	MIN 3 - 2 OTT	MIN	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	8	0	0.35
1	OTT	15	1	1.12
2	MIN	20	1	1.48
2	OTT	24	2	2.06
3	MIN	6	1	1.01
3	OTT	16	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown