San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-12-13 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 San Jose Sharks (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 65.6%
SJS: 34.4%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.73
SJS: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
| Stat | PIT | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.896 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.874 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.884 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 3.36 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs SJS: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | PIT 5 - 6 SJS | SJS | PIT |
| 2025-10-18 | SJS 0 - 3 PIT | PIT | SJS |
| 2025-01-27 | SJS 2 - 1 PIT | SJS | SJS |
| 2024-11-16 | PIT 4 - 3 SJS | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-03-14 | PIT 6 - 3 SJS | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:27 | SJS | Goal |
| 1 | 12:41 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 00:19 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 09:42 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 19:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 05:25 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 07:33 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 14:19 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 17:33 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 18:22 | PIT | Goal |
| 4 | 02:57 | SJS | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 San Jose Sharks
Expected: 3.7 - 2.8