San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 58.6%

SJS: 41.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.77

SJS: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	PIT	SJS
Season SV%	0.886	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	31	25	6	80.6%	4.99	5	-1.01
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	43	38	5	88.4%	4.53	4	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	PIT 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	PIT
2025-10-18	SJS 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-27	SJS 2 - 1 PIT	SJS	PIT
2024-11-16	PIT 4 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT
2024-03-14	PIT 6 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	14	1	1.43
1	SJS	17	0	1.12
2	PIT	27	1	1.64
2	SJS	10	0	0.65
3	PIT	16	2	1.38
3	SJS	23	5	3.08
4	PIT	1	0	0.08
4	SJS	1	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.8 - 2.7