Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 46.7%

TBL: 53.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.14

TBL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	NYI	TBL
Season SV%	0.910	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	37	34	3	91.9%	5.58	6	2.58
TBL	Jonas Johansson	20	16	4	80.0%	3.55	5	-0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs TBL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	TBL
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	1	0.73
1	TBL	12	1	0.96
2	NYI	6	0	0.25
2	TBL	24	3	2.82
3	NYI	12	2	0.95
3	TBL	13	0	0.54
4	NYI	2	0	0.15
4	TBL	1	1	0.21
5	NYI	3	2	1.47
5	TBL	3	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1