Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

Win Probability

NYI: 60.8%

TBL: 39.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.19

TBL: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TBL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	1	0.73
1	TBL	12	1	0.96
2	NYI	6	0	0.25
2	TBL	24	3	2.82
3	NYI	12	2	0.95
3	TBL	13	0	0.54
4	NYI	2	0	0.15
4	TBL	1	1	0.21
5	NYI	3	2	1.47
5	TBL	3	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9