Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 42.7%

EDM: 57.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.30

EDM: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	TOR	EDM
Season SV%	0.912	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.90	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	38	32	6	84.2%	4.11	2	-1.89
EDM	Tristan Jarry	28	25	3	89.3%	3.28	2	0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.73
1	EDM	20	1	1.47
2	TOR	20	1	1.50
2	EDM	17	1	1.82
3	TOR	14	1	1.05
3	EDM	16	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown