Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

TOR: 38.3%

EDM: 61.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.10

EDM: 3.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.73
1	EDM	20	1	1.47
2	TOR	20	1	1.50
2	EDM	17	1	1.82
3	TOR	14	1	1.05
3	EDM	16	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.6