Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 52.6%

MTL: 47.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.24

MTL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	NYR	MTL
Season SV%	0.910	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	18	14	4	77.8%	2.70	2	-1.30
MTL	Jacob Fowler	29	24	5	82.8%	5.08	6	0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs MTL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	MTL
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	22	3	2.21
1	MTL	14	1	1.26
2	NYR	12	1	0.95
2	MTL	7	1	0.72
3	NYR	13	0	0.75
3	MTL	13	0	0.41
4	NYR	7	2	1.16
4	MTL	2	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2