Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 40.1%

CAR: 59.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.85

CAR: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	PHI	CAR
Season SV%	0.868	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	23	19	4	82.6%	4.42	3	0.42
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	20	17	3	85.0%	2.31	1	-0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PHI at home vs CAR: 1-13

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-11	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-10-03	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	1	0.72
1	CAR	11	1	0.93
2	PHI	13	0	0.89
2	CAR	17	0	0.95
3	PHI	2	0	0.30
3	CAR	16	1	1.11
4	PHI	1	0	0.11
4	CAR	3	0	0.40
5	PHI	4	0	0.29
5	CAR	4	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2