Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 4 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 47.7%

FLA: 52.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.64

FLA: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	DAL	FLA
Season SV%	0.907	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	19	4	82.6%	2.64	2	-1.36
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	15	15	0	100.0%	1.58	2	1.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • DAL at home vs FLA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	DAL 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-11-01	FLA 4 - 3 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-02	FLA 4 - 2 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-01	DAL 4 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-03-12	DAL 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	7	1	0.49
1	FLA	8	0	0.26
2	DAL	7	0	0.32
2	FLA	17	0	1.21
3	DAL	13	1	0.77
3	FLA	10	2	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown