Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-12-13 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 2 Calgary Flames (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 59.2%

CGY: 40.8%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.62

CGY: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	LAK	CGY
Season SV%	0.913	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.27	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	38	36	2	94.7%	3.07	0	1.07
CGY	Dustin Wolf	22	21	1	95.5%	2.86	1	1.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • LAK at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	CGY 3 - 1 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-03-24	CGY 3 - 2 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-02-28	LAK 2 - 0 CGY	LAK	LAK
2025-12-13	LAK 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	LAK
2025-04-17	LAK 1 - 5 CGY	CGY	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	14	0	0.65
1	CGY	17	0	0.89
2	LAK	13	1	1.43
2	CGY	19	0	1.59
3	LAK	15	0	0.78
3	CGY	9	0	0.47
4	LAK	0	0	0.00
4	CGY	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7