Utah Hockey Club at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-14 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 5 Utah Hockey Club (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 39.4%

UTA: 60.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.93

UTA: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Sergei Murashov - 1-1-0 | 0.932 SV% | 1.53 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	PIT	UTA
Season SV%	0.932	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	1.53	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Sergei Murashov	36	31	5	86.1%	3.65	2	-1.35
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	16	12	4	75.0%	1.53	0	-2.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs UTA: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	UTA 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	UTA
2025-12-14	PIT 4 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-01-29	UTA 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	UTA
2024-11-23	PIT 1 - 6 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	7	0	0.30
1	UTA	17	0	1.13
2	PIT	4	0	0.26
2	UTA	20	1	1.10
3	PIT	11	0	0.97
3	UTA	21	1	1.36
4	PIT	0	0	0.00
4	UTA	1	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 5 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0