Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-14 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 39.8%

EDM: 60.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.15

EDM: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Stat	MTL	EDM
Season SV%	0.889	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	3.69

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	28	27	1	96.4%	3.92	4	2.92
EDM	Calvin Pickard	27	23	4	85.2%	4.63	7	0.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-14	MTL 4 - 1 EDM	MTL	EDM
2025-10-23	EDM 6 - 5 MTL	EDM	EDM
2025-03-06	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM
2024-11-18	MTL 3 - 0 EDM	MTL	EDM
2024-03-19	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	1.58
1	EDM	16	1	1.35
2	MTL	15	3	1.49
2	EDM	12	1	0.94
3	MTL	7	3	1.56
3	EDM	17	2	1.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown