Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-12-15 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 45.8%

OTT: 54.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.19

OTT: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	WPG	OTT
Season SV%	0.907	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	31	28	3	90.3%	3.37	3	0.37
OTT	Linus Ullmark	25	23	2	92.0%	3.10	2	1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WPG at home vs OTT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	OTT 4 - 2 WPG	OTT	OTT
2025-12-15	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-02-26	OTT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	OTT
2024-12-28	WPG 4 - 2 OTT	WPG	OTT
2024-03-30	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	1	1.23
1	OTT	13	2	1.14
2	WPG	18	0	0.83
2	OTT	13	0	0.88
3	WPG	9	0	0.55
3	OTT	14	0	0.88
4	WPG	3	1	0.49
4	OTT	4	1	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2