Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-12-15 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 50.7%

LAK: 49.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.33

LAK: 2.57

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	DAL	LAK
Season SV%	0.912	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	28	27	1	96.4%	2.76	2	1.76
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	26	22	4	84.6%	3.39	5	-0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • DAL at home vs LAK: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	LAK 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	LAK
2025-12-15	DAL 4 - 1 LAK	DAL	DAL
2025-10-23	DAL 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-02-28	DAL 6 - 2 LAK	DAL	DAL
2025-02-07	LAK 5 - 4 DAL	LAK	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	1	0.63
1	LAK	17	2	1.31
2	DAL	12	3	1.34
2	LAK	18	0	1.09
3	DAL	14	1	1.41
3	LAK	9	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown