Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 54.7%

CHI: 45.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.73

CHI: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	TOR	CHI
Season SV%	0.914	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	25	23	2	92.0%	1.76	1	-0.24
CHI	Spencer Knight	27	24	3	88.9%	2.30	0	-0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	TOR 3 - 2 CHI	TOR	TOR
2025-11-15	CHI 3 - 2 TOR	CHI	TOR
2025-02-23	CHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-02	TOR 4 - 1 CHI	TOR	TOR
2023-11-24	CHI 4 - 3 TOR	CHI	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.74
1	CHI	11	1	1.03
2	TOR	10	0	0.68
2	CHI	7	0	0.37
3	TOR	19	0	0.88
3	CHI	13	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown