Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

TOR: 60.7%

CHI: 39.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.53

CHI: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	TOR 3 - 2 CHI	TOR	TOR
2025-11-15	CHI 3 - 2 TOR	CHI	TOR
2025-02-23	CHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-02	TOR 4 - 1 CHI	TOR	TOR
2023-11-24	CHI 4 - 3 TOR	CHI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.74
1	CHI	11	1	1.03
2	TOR	10	0	0.68
2	CHI	7	0	0.37
3	TOR	19	0	0.88
3	CHI	13	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1