Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 54.8%

PHI: 45.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.21

PHI: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	0	0.50
1	PHI	11	1	0.86
2	MTL	12	0	0.95
2	PHI	12	1	0.82
3	MTL	22	1	1.37
3	PHI	6	1	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.5