Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 52.6%

PHI: 47.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.57

PHI: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	MTL	PHI
Season SV%	0.904	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	21	17	4	81.0%	2.30	3	-1.70
PHI	Dan Vladar	22	21	1	95.5%	2.82	1	1.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	0	0.50
1	PHI	11	1	0.86
2	MTL	12	0	0.95
2	PHI	12	1	0.82
3	MTL	22	1	1.37
3	PHI	6	1	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown