Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 0 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 62.4%

VAN: 37.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.37

VAN: 2.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Stat	NYR	VAN
Season SV%	0.924	0.905
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.11	2.72

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	17	14	3	82.4%	2.32	2	-0.68
VAN	Thatcher Demko	23	23	0	100.0%	2.94	3	2.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs VAN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	NYR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	NYR
2025-10-28	VAN 0 - 2 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-03-22	NYR 5 - 3 VAN	NYR	NYR
2024-11-19	VAN 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2024-01-08	NYR 3 - 6 VAN	VAN	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	2	1.30
1	VAN	6	0	0.36
2	NYR	12	1	1.02
2	VAN	7	0	0.41
3	NYR	15	0	0.62
3	VAN	15	2	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown