Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-16 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 46.5%

EDM: 53.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.88

EDM: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	PIT	EDM
Season SV%	0.888	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.91	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Stuart Skinner	23	17	6	73.9%	4.15	4	-1.85
EDM	Tristan Jarry	30	26	4	86.7%	3.72	2	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs EDM: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	EDM 2 - 6 PIT	PIT	EDM
2025-12-16	PIT 4 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-09	PIT 5 - 3 EDM	PIT	EDM
2024-10-25	EDM 4 - 0 PIT	EDM	EDM
2024-03-10	PIT 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	11	0	0.82
1	EDM	24	3	2.14
2	PIT	12	0	0.76
2	EDM	13	0	0.89
3	PIT	21	2	2.14
3	EDM	9	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown