Utah Hockey Club at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-12-17 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 4 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 51.7%

UTA: 48.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.60

UTA: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	DET	UTA
Season SV%	0.888	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.99	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	28	24	4	85.7%	2.93	2	-1.07
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	28	27	1	96.4%	2.38	1	1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs UTA: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	UTA 4 - 1 DET	UTA	UTA
2025-12-17	DET 1 - 4 UTA	UTA	DET
2025-03-24	UTA 1 - 5 DET	DET	UTA
2025-03-06	DET 2 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	17	1	1.03
1	UTA	11	0	0.64
2	DET	16	0	0.91
2	UTA	15	1	0.87
3	DET	7	0	0.43
3	UTA	14	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown