Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-12-17 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 1 - 0 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 47.5%

WPG: 52.5%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.23

WPG: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	STL	WPG
Season SV%	0.901	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	24	24	0	100.0%	2.06	1	2.06
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	26	25	1	96.2%	3.59	2	2.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs WPG: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	STL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	STL
2026-03-15	WPG 3 - 2 STL	WPG	STL
2026-01-20	WPG 3 - 1 STL	WPG	WPG
2025-12-17	STL 1 - 0 WPG	STL	WPG
2025-05-04	WPG 4 - 3 STL	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	18	2	1.97
1	WPG	13	0	0.71
2	STL	17	0	1.33
2	WPG	15	1	0.77
3	STL	5	0	0.28
3	WPG	16	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown