New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-12-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 New Jersey Devils (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 58.8%

NJD: 41.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.38

NJD: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs NJD: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-17	VGK 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	VGK
2025-12-05	NJD 0 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-02	VGK 2 - 0 NJD	VGK	VGK
2025-02-06	NJD 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-03-17	VGK 3 - 1 NJD	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	12	0	0.52
1	NJD	13	0	1.19
2	VGK	21	0	1.47
2	NJD	17	0	1.33
3	VGK	14	1	1.03
3	NJD	15	2	1.34
4	VGK	8	1	1.06
4	NJD	2	0	0.15
5	VGK	3	0	0.24
5	NJD	3	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8