New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-12-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 New Jersey Devils (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 58.8%

NJD: 41.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.40

NJD: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	VGK	NJD
Season SV%	0.883	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	36	34	2	94.4%	5.01	3	3.01
NJD	Jake Allen	40	39	1	97.5%	4.34	2	3.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs NJD: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-17	VGK 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	VGK
2025-12-05	NJD 0 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-02	VGK 2 - 0 NJD	VGK	VGK
2025-02-06	NJD 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-03-17	VGK 3 - 1 NJD	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	12	0	0.52
1	NJD	13	0	1.19
2	VGK	21	0	1.47
2	NJD	17	0	1.33
3	VGK	14	1	1.03
3	NJD	15	2	1.34
4	VGK	8	1	1.06
4	NJD	2	0	0.15
5	VGK	3	0	0.24
5	NJD	3	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8