Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-12-18 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 58.6%

PHI: 41.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.19

PHI: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	BUF	PHI
Season SV%	0.906	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	27	24	3	88.9%	2.96	1	-0.04
PHI	Samuel Ersson	28	23	5	82.1%	3.73	1	-1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • BUF at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	PHI
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	4	0	0.38
1	PHI	18	1	1.32
2	BUF	22	0	1.21
2	PHI	16	0	1.13
3	BUF	17	1	2.13
3	PHI	6	0	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown