Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-12-18 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

BUF: 57.9%

PHI: 42.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.36

PHI: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	PHI
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	4	0	0.38
1	PHI	18	1	1.32
2	BUF	22	0	1.21
2	PHI	16	0	1.13
3	BUF	17	1	2.13
3	PHI	6	0	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1