Chicago Blackhawks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-18 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 62.3%

CHI: 37.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.34

CHI: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	MTL	CHI
Season SV%	0.889	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	15	14	1	93.3%	1.97	2	0.97
CHI	Spencer Knight	35	31	4	88.6%	4.52	5	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	MTL 4 - 1 CHI	MTL	MTL
2025-10-11	CHI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-14	MTL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	MTL
2025-01-03	CHI 4 - 2 MTL	CHI	MTL
2023-12-22	CHI 2 - 5 MTL	MTL	CHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	0.93
1	CHI	7	0	0.43
2	MTL	20	3	1.69
2	CHI	13	2	1.03
3	MTL	18	2	1.90
3	CHI	13	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown