Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-12-18 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 62.7%

PIT: 37.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.45

PIT: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	OTT	PIT
Season SV%	0.881	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	25	25	0	100.0%	2.48	2	2.48
PIT	Arturs Silovs	26	22	4	84.6%	2.95	2	-1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • OTT at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	PIT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	1	1.33
1	PIT	13	1	0.88
2	OTT	15	1	1.30
2	PIT	9	1	0.71
3	OTT	8	0	0.33
3	PIT	21	0	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown