Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-12-18 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 66.8%

LAK: 33.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.41

LAK: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TBL at home vs LAK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	LAK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	LAK
2025-12-18	TBL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	TBL
2025-01-30	TBL 3 - 0 LAK	TBL	TBL
2025-01-04	LAK 2 - 1 TBL	LAK	LAK
2024-03-23	LAK 4 - 3 TBL	LAK	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	1	1.10
1	LAK	11	0	0.42
2	TBL	17	0	0.71
2	LAK	11	1	0.77
3	TBL	20	3	1.86
3	LAK	4	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6