Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-12-19 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 45.0%

CAR: 55.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.06

CAR: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	FLA	CAR
Season SV%	0.888	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	32	28	4	87.5%	5.03	5	1.03
CAR	Brandon Bussi	44	39	5	88.6%	5.80	4	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • FLA at home vs CAR: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	CAR 9 - 1 FLA	CAR	CAR
2025-12-23	CAR 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR
2025-12-19	FLA 4 - 3 CAR	FLA	CAR
2025-05-28	CAR 3 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR
2025-05-26	FLA 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	18	0	0.94
1	CAR	13	0	0.60
2	FLA	14	0	1.06
2	CAR	18	0	0.91
3	FLA	20	2	1.76
3	CAR	11	3	1.98
4	FLA	3	0	0.25
4	CAR	3	1	0.42
5	FLA	4	2	1.79
5	CAR	4	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1